WTC scenarios: Has the First Test Loss against New Zealand dented India’s Chance

The First Test between India and New Zealand in the Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore, did not go according to plan for the Indian cricket fan.

New Zealand on Sunday registered a historic Test win in India after 36 years, beating the hosts by eight wickets in the first Test at Bengaluru in a rain-curtailed match.

India was bundled out for an embarrassing 46 runs in their first innings which proved to be the deciding factor in the loss.

After conceding a 356-run lead, the Indian team showed great fightback in their second innings to not only cover the huge lead but also give the Kiwis a target to chase on the fifth day of the Test Match.

India made it a respectable loss even after misreading the conditions and after conceding a huge lead.

How are the points earned in the WTC cycle?

In the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-2025, teams will get 12 points for a win, 4 for a draw, and 6 for a tie. For slow over-rates teams will lose one championship point for each over-short. Teams will be ranked on the percentage of points won.

Has the loss hurt India’s WTC chances?

More than India’s loss in the WTC cycle, the win has helped New Zealand to put their nose ahead of England and South Africa in the WTC standing.

The former World Test champions, New Zealand now are at the 4^th place in the WTC table and will now start fancying their chance to have a shot to qualify into the top 2 standing.

The unexpected India’s loss to the Kiwis has not yet affected India’s position in the WTC Table and they still remain at the top of the WTC Table.

This is mainly because of the consistent run by Team India in the longer format of the game.

India remains in first place, just with a slightly reduced points percentage.

While India are one of the favourites to qualify for their third consecutive WTC finals next June, nothing can be taken for granted and the Rohit Sharma led Indian team knows the significance and the effects of each win/ loss in the limited number of Test matches left in the Test cycle.

How has the Bengaluru loss affected their chances? How can India Qualify?

*All calculations are made without taking points deductions for over rates into account.

In the remaining period of the WTC cycle, India will have seven more matches.

Two Test against New Zealand in Mumbai and Pune
Five Test match series against Australia Down Under starting next month.

Teams can only overtake India in the remainder of the WTC cycle with a superior points percentage.

Australia will be the biggest threat.

If India wins six of their seven remaining matches, they will definitely qualify for the finals with a point percentage of 74.56%.

If India loses two matches and wins the other five, they will finish on 69.3%. Only South Africa can overtake India is scenario. India still can qualify.

India in order to qualify without depending on other results, India will have to win at least five more matches.

If India loses three, their maximum possible points percentage will be 64.04%. This is when different permutations and combinations can threaten Team India’s position, especially from Teams like Australia & South Africa, Sri Lanka & New Zealand. Their results will directly affect India’s chances.

Ideal Situation for India will be to beat New Zealand in the remaining two test matches and win at least 2 games in the Border Gavaskar Trophy down under.

Conclusion

India should be relatively safe as long as they win at least four more matches and draw at least one more.

To make it a direct qualification, 5 wins will seal the deal for India immaterial to the result of the balance 2 games.

WTC 2023-2025 Table

Pos.	Team	Mat.	Won	Lost	Drawn	Points	PCT
1	India	11	8	2	1	98	68.05
2	Australia	12	8	3	1	90	62.5
3	Sri Lanka	9	5	4	0	60	55.56
4	New Zealand	9	4	5	0	48	44.44
5	England	17	9	7	1	93	45.59
6	South Africa	6	2	3	1	28	38.89
7	Bangladesh	8	3	5	0	33	34.38
8	West Indies	9	1	6	2	20	18.52
9	Pakistan	8	2	6	0	16	16.67

Super Sports views

Before the first test a 3-0 whitewash against New Zealand would have almost qualified India with 1 win needed from the remaining 5 games left.

New Zealand secured only their third Test win on Indian soil which came as a shocker to all Indian fans.

In ICC events, New Zealand has troubled India in more than one occasion in the past and now with the first Test win against the host, New Zealand has given a slight hiccup to India’s path to the finals of the World Test Championship.

India’s chances were high to win in home conditions, but with the first Test loss, Team India will have to now rely on the Australian series down under for qualification in WTC.

This will be a challenge for India given the quality of the Australian team.

India needs to ensure they keep their PCT above 56 to stay in contention for the WTC final.

If South Africa or Australia loses any Test match from hereon it will directly benefit Team India.

India, however, will want to qualify on their own merit and not be at the mercy of other team results.

India’s top rivals- Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka face uphill battles but all are in the race.

Australia:

Australia has points percentage of 62.50 %. They have 7 Tests to play which include the 5-match Border Gavaskar Trophy.

Even if they manage to win all of those matches, their maximum percentage would only rise to 76.32%.

South Africa:

South Africa has a points percentage of 69.44%. They have 6 Tests remaining. They will face against Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh which will be a tall order to win all. Even If they manage to win 5 Test matches, it will help India to edge past them.

Sri Lanka:

Currently third in the standings, have four critical Tests against South Africa and Australia. Winning all four would bring them to 69.23%, potentially ensuring a spot in the final. That would be fun!!

New Zealand:

With three more matches to play, including two against India, New Zealand has an outside chance of qualification. The Blackcaps could finish with a win-loss percentage of 64.29% if they win all their remaining matches.

Even three wins might not be enough to break the 50% mark

Bangladesh and the West Indies: Are out of the race

In any of the scenarios, South Africa and Australia will be affected by each other’s win from hereon which will make the competition very competitive.

The Border Gavaskar Trophy will be the most important series in this WTC Cycle, with the results directly affecting the points table and WTC final qualification.